Causal decomposition · launching soon

Retention moved. Which lever did it?

UA mix, onboarding, core game: when they all changed at once, dashboards can’t tell you which one moved the number. Asemic’s causal decomposition splits the change into its drivers, so you fix the right thing.

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Causal decomposition
D7 retention · Jun vs May example 24.1% 21.3%
−2.8pp
Attributed to
User acquisition
−1.9pp
Onboarding
+0.4pp
Core-game
−1.3pp
Σ −2.8pp explained Dig deeper Full report →
How it works

Attribution for product decisions,
not just ad clicks.

01

Compare the world as it was

Two periods or two cohorts, resolved point-in-time: who you acquired, what their early days looked like, what was live in the game. Apples to apples, as of the moment it happened.

02

Attribute the change

The engine splits the KPI delta into contributions: how much came from who you brought in (UA), how much from the early experience (onboarding), and how much from what you shipped (core-game).

03

Act on the driver

A −2.8pp retention move stops being a mystery meeting and becomes a decision: fix the channel mix, the FTUE, or the patch, whichever actually moved it.

The decomposition is only as trustworthy as its cohorts, which is why it sits on Asemic’s point-in-time engine: every comparison resolves player state as of the day it describes.

Why believe it

Validated against known ground truth.

Causal claims are easy to make and hard to earn. Ours are tested three ways:

Real games

Tested on event data from multiple live titles, not synthetic demos.

A/B ground truth

Checked against experiments where the true effect is known from the test itself.

Injected effects

Run on datasets with deliberately planted changes; the algorithm recovers the known answer.

Honest fine print: known edge cases are still being refined; we say “validated against ground truth,” never “perfect.” Retention decomposition ships first; revenue is next.

Stop guessing which lever moved the metric.

Launch news, plus the case studies as they’re published.